5% Yields, $100 Oil and an AI Reality Check

No. 01

Earnings season starts Tuesday: banks first, then the chip giants

JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citi and Wells Fargo all report on Tuesday morning, with Bank of America and Morgan Stanley on Wednesday. ASML reports Wednesday and TSMC on Thursday. TSMC has already said third-quarter revenue hit a record NT$1.49 trillion, above its own guidance, so Thursday is all about margins, capex and what it says about AI demand next year. Bank stocks have been soft as long-term yields jumped, which lowers the bar going in.

Jox's take: TSMC's revenue is already known. The guidance is what sets the tone for the whole AI trade.

No. 02

OpenAI's revenue reality check knocks AI stocks

CNBC confirmed that OpenAI told investors it hit roughly $50B in annualised revenue at the end of September. That's well short of the $68B figure widely reported last month, which apparently included partners' gross revenue. AI names sold off on Thursday: Nvidia fell 3%, Oracle nearly 6% and CoreWeave nearly 8%, with AMD, Broadcom and Intel down 4–5%. By Friday the Nasdaq had bounced and finished the week up 0.6%.

Jox's take: The business didn't change, only the headline number did. That tells you how much of the AI trade is priced off figures nobody outside can check.

No. 03

Jefferies' Chris Wood: the AI build-out risks "massive capital destruction"

In his GREED & fear note, Wood called much of the roughly $695B in US hyperscaler capex for 2026 "malinvestment". His reasons: cheap Chinese open-source models keep winning share, token prices keep falling, and more of the spending is funded with debt. He still likes picks-and-shovels names like semis.

Jox's take: I wouldn't dump the AI trade on one note. But I'd check whether the companies I own pay for their build-out with cash flow or with debt.

No. 04

US: 5.3% to lend for ten years, and CPI on Wednesday

The Treasury sold $39B of 10-year notes on Wednesday at a 5.30% yield, the highest at a 10-year auction since November 2000. Demand was strong, with a 2.77 bid-to-cover. The Fed raised rates to 3.75–4.00% in September, and the minutes showed most officials expect another hike this year. September CPI lands on Wednesday at 08:30 ET (13:30 UK), with forecasts of about 3.6–3.7% headline and 2.5% core.

Jox's take: Cash and short-dated bonds pay real money again. A hot CPI print strengthens that case and weakens the one for long-duration growth stocks.

No. 05

UK gilts: the highest borrowing costs since 1998

On Thursday the 30-year gilt yield hit 6.047%, its highest since 1998, and the 10-year reached 5.527%, its highest since 2007 (LSEG data via Dow Jones). Two Bank of England policymakers, chief economist Huw Pill and Megan Greene, both sounded uneasy about inflation, and markets priced about an 86% chance of a rate hike in November. Chancellor John Healey's first Budget on 28 October is the next big test.

Jox's take: If your UK mortgage fix ends in the next year, budget for a higher payment now. Savers are finally on the right side of this.

No. 06

Oil back above $100, and gold bounces off its lows

Brent jumped about 4% on Thursday to settle at $104.28. Tanker attacks around the Strait of Hormuz hit their highest level since the Iran war began, and Hurricane Isaias shut about 1.3 million barrels a day of US Gulf output. Oil eased on Friday after President Trump said the US wouldn't strike Iran before the 3 November midterms. Gold went the other way: after a two-month low earlier in the week, spot gold climbed back to around $4,185 on Friday as the dollar and yields eased.

Jox's take: Oil feeds into everything else here: inflation, yields, the Bank of England. While Hormuz stays this tense, I'd treat any CPI relief as temporary.

No. 07

Ledger confirms a spy implant in a resold wallet

Ledger has confirmed that at least one device sold through CryptoBilis, a Southeast Asian reseller, carried an "unauthorized hardware implant". Independent trackers put suspected losses at around $86–93M, but Ledger hasn't verified those numbers. CryptoBilis has stopped selling hardware wallets. Ledger's advice: if you bought from them, don't set the device up, and if you already did, move your funds to a new device with a new seed.

Jox's take: Buy hardware wallets direct from the maker, every time. If you think you've been drained, SEAL 911 (securityalliance.org) is who you call.

No. 08

Robinhood x T. Rowe Price: an active ETF goes on-chain?

Robinhood is exploring a Stock Token on Robinhood Chain tied to an actively managed ETF from T. Rowe Price, which runs about $1.9T. It's early: no fund has been named, there's no launch date, and plenty of approvals are still needed. Like Robinhood's other stock tokens, it wouldn't be available to US users.

Jox's take: This is where stocks and crypto meet in a way that matters: a big, traditional fund manager putting real funds on-chain. It's slow, but it's real.

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